The only lessons from #LE17: polling, turnout, selections, fear. #GE17

The SKWAWKBOX

le lessonsThe media are – inevitably – claiming that Labour took a battering in today’s local elections. Wasn’t a good day to be sure, but it must be borne in mind that the majority of local elections – apart from the ‘metro mayorals’ – were in areas in which the Tories are expected to do well and gains/losses are measured against a set of 2013 results that were a high point for Labour.

It is what it is.

But the real take-aways from the results are not those you’ll hear pundits and correspondent drone on about as they sing, mostly, from a Tory songsheet. Here’s what anyone who wants a change of government should be thinking about:

48/38 25/11 (aka pollsters know nothing)

Only last week, polling companies were claiming that the Tories stood at 48% in voting intention polls. Electoral expert John Curtice, however, has analysed today’s result and described the…

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